统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 82-94.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c. 2020.09.008

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基于遗传算法—部分协整理论的配对交易方法及应用

毕秀春 于晓雨 张曙光   

  • 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-09-18

Pairs Trading Based on Genetic Algorithm—Partial Cointegration Theory

Bi Xiuchun Yu Xiaoyu Zhang Shuguang   

  • Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-09-18

摘要: 配对交易是一类通过价差套利的统计套利策略,其主要研究内容为寻找配对风险资产和配对资产的最优阈值。部分协整方法(Clegg 和Krauss,2018)可有效提高配对交易中的风险资产对数量和交易频率,是配对交易的新方法。本文将遗传算法融入部分协整配对交易方法,利用遗传算法求得最优阈值,引入滑动窗口检测配对股票的部分协整性,并采用双向交易机制抓住更多交易机会。这种交易方法克服了部分协整方法在阈值选取粗糙、参数失灵和交易机会丧失方面的问题。通过在S&P500、沪深300 和牛熊市中的中证500 指数分行业成分股中进行检验,并与原方法作比较,实证结果表明本文提出的方法在各类市场的表现均明显优于部分协整方法,且收益是稳健的。

关键词: 配对交易, 最优阈值, 部分协整, 遗传算法

Abstract: Pairs trading is a kind of statistical arbitrage strategy through spread arbitrage. Its main research content is to find the paired risk assets and the optimal threshold. Partial cointegration method can effectively improve the number of paired risk assets and transaction frequency. This paper integrates genetic algorithm into partial cointegration pairs trading method, uses genetic algorithm to obtain optimal threshold, introduces sliding window to detect partial cointegration of paired stocks, and adopts two-way trading mechanism to grasp more trading opportunities. This trading method overcomes some problems of partial cointegration methods in terms of threshold selection roughness, parameter failure, and loss of trading opportunities. Both methods are sufficiently tested under S&P 500 and various market conditions of Chinese stock market. Results show that the performance of the method presented in this paper is obviously better than that of the original method in various markets and the returns are robust.

Key words: Pairs Trading, Optimal Threshold, Partial Cointegration, Genetic Algorithm